By ANTHONY IZAGUIRRE Related Press

It’s a 2024 election battleground the place hundreds of thousands of {dollars} are being spent and large names in American politics are popping up. However it’s not within the Rust Belt. And it isn’t Georgia or Nevada, both.

It’s Lengthy Island, a suburban stretch east of New York Metropolis, house to some 3 million individuals who might need an outsized function in selecting which get together controls Congress. Democrats are only a few seats shy of successful a majority within the U.S. Home and the island, only a practice experience from liberal Manhattan, has emerged as an unbelievable stage for a few of the most contested races this 12 months.

The area can be an unlikely heart of Republican energy in deep blue New York.

In some methods, the problems which have pushed Lengthy Island to the best in current elections might animate any battleground state suburb this November, with GOP candidates framing their campaigns on crime, immigration and the economic system. The transfer by Democrats to interchange President Joe Biden with Vice President Kamala Harris on the high of the ticket final month added one other unpredictable variable to downballot races everywhere in the nation, with each events scrambling to evaluate the affect.

However right here, Republicans have seized momentum by harnessing suburban backlash over progressive insurance policies in New York Metropolis, casting themselves as a dam that may cease the left from swamping Lengthy Island with liberal extra.

The technique has confirmed profitable thus far. Lengthy Island Republicans have dominated native races in Nassau and Suffolk counties and management all however one of many island’s congressional seats. New York as an entire could vote reliably Democratic, however there’s nuance to be discovered not removed from Manhattan.

“The Democrat Get together is now not the Democrat Get together as we knew, or I knew, rising up. It’s modified. It’s change into far more to the left, progressives are taking up,” mentioned Joe Cairo, chairman of the Nassau County Republican Get together and an architect of Republican wins on the island. “Individuals transfer out right here, they’re fed up with the town.”

Republicans notched maybe their most outstanding victories on Lengthy Island two years in the past, as the town was reeling from a pandemic-era uptick in violent crime. Suburban voters had been pounded by a gentle stream of apocalyptic headlines and TV commentary suggesting an city hellscape subsequent door.

Republicans swept all 4 of the island’s congressional seats, and a Lengthy Island Republican, former U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin, almost landed a significant upset within the governor’s race — an workplace the GOP has not held in years.

Democrats, although, now see Lengthy Island as a chief alternative to recapture congressional seats of their bid to reclaim a Home majority.

The get together is coming off an encouraging win in a winter particular election for the seat that turned vacant when George Santos was expelled from Congress. Democrat Tom Suozzi, operating as a centrist, defeated a Republican county lawmaker.

Republican U.S. Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, who’s searching for a second time period in a district simply east of Queens, is predicted to face a severe problem from Democrat Laura Gillen, whom he defeated by lower than 4 factors in 2022.

Democrats have additionally issued dire warnings about what a federal authorities unified below Republicans might imply for abortion entry, following a formulation that has labored elsewhere to drive up turnout on their facet.

“The legacy of the Dobbs resolution, overturning Roe v. Wade, is beginning to play out and actually resonate with individuals who care about entry to reproductive well being care,” mentioned Gillen, a former city supervisor.

Democrats on Lengthy Island additionally hope to learn from having Harris as their presidential nominee, with voters energized round a feminine candidate in a 12 months when defending abortion entry is on voters’ minds.


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