Get your popcorn (or cocktail, or antacid) and settle in: President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump face off tonight within the first presidential debate of the 2024 general election.

If you happen to’re pondering it’s early for such a showdown — technically neither Biden nor Trump is their get together’s official nominee — you’re not incorrect. That is the earliest presidential debate in U.S. historical past.

However, historical past apart, the early debate is essential for each candidates. Polling exhibits both men struggle with likeability. Each additionally face questions on their ages and psychological health and competency to be the commander in chief. And Trump brings the extra baggage of his latest felony convictions in a hush-money case.

Although debates provide the candidates an opportunity to current their insurance policies in an unvarnished method to an enormous viewers, debates are also theater, a stage on which candidates can carry out in a manner that — they hope — appeals to voters. Which means debates are also a possible minefield, a novel alternative to slide up or, conversely, to trigger their opponent to look unprepared.

In an period of social media and wall-to-wall information protection, such moments may hang-out or assist both candidate for the rest of the marketing campaign.

“Each Biden and Trump are outlined by their weaknesses,” mentioned Dan Schnur, who teaches political messaging at USC and UC Berkeley. “And each have to discover a method to reassure skeptical voters that these weaknesses shouldn’t decide their vote.”

For Biden, that’s age. Although at 81 he’s solely three years older than Trump, a special counsel report this year described Biden’s memory as “hazy” with “important limitations.” Whereas Biden’s camp has howled that the outline wasn’t honest, the report echoed polling that means a lot of the American public is apprehensive about his competency.

For Trump, one concern is conduct. The previous president, identified for his risky and at instances outright offensive off-the-cuff remarks, usually lashes out at opponents or individuals he doesn’t like. Along with his penchant for verbal assaults, it wouldn’t be stunning if Trump hits his opponent over his son, Hunter Biden, who this month was convicted of felony federal gun charges.

Biden, however, may discuss Trump’s own criminal convictions. Biden’s marketing campaign not too long ago rolled out adverts in battleground states highlighting Trump’s authorized woes, regardless that the president beforehand had typically stayed away from the problem.

And Trump, who simply turned 78, has confronted questions on his personal competency as effectively, notably within the wake of latest speeches wherein he spoke about sharks and electrocutions.

A CBS News ballot from June 13 exhibits almost one in 4 of all voters (23%) consider neither Biden nor Trump has the “psychological and cognitive well being” to be president, whereas only one in 12 voters (8%) assume each males are as much as the duty.

Nonetheless, allies for each males are hoping their candidates keep on message about coverage.

And, on that entrance, one of many greatest subjects figures to be immigration.

Juggling the problems

Recent polling shows immigration — together with the economic system — is prime of thoughts for a lot of California voters.

For Biden, the controversy comes contemporary on the heels of latest whipsaw actions on immigration.

On June 4, he signed an executive order to limit migrants’ asylum requests on the southern border and let immigration officers pace up the method of deporting individuals who illegally enter the U.S. Two weeks later he introduced a program meant to help migrant families keep collectively and assist recipients of deferred motion to extra swiftly get work visas beneath sure situations, a coverage that would have an effect on about 500,000 individuals.

Immigration has been one of many hardest challenges Biden has confronted as president, and he’s anticipated to go on the offensive with it throughout tonight’s debate, according to CNN, which is internet hosting the competition.

Trump’s advisors, too, have implored him to deal with points like crime, inflation and immigration, CNN reported.

For Trump, a subject that’s confirmed tough to navigate is abortion.

His views on the problem haven’t been particularly consistent. Previous to working for president, Trump mentioned he was pro-choice, however he additionally backed laws to ban abortion. As president, he nominated conservative justices to the Supreme Courtroom, and three of his appointees had been on the excessive court docket two years in the past this month when it stripped away constitutional protections for abortion — one thing Trump reminded conservative voters about as not too long ago as final week. But he’s additionally avoided backing an outright nationwide ban on abortion.

Whereas voters’ opinions on abortion have fluctuated over time, polling within the two years for the reason that Supreme Courtroom struck down Roe v. Wade has proven a powerful swing in favor of abortion rights.

“Trump has to persuade (swing) voters that he’s extra compassionate on abortion than they consider,” mentioned Schnur.

One other sticking level within the debate might be overseas coverage, particularly the Israel-Hamas battle.

Biden has needed to stroll a good line between defending Israel, a long-time ally, and supporting Palestinians, a precedence, notably, among the many extra progressive wing of his get together. Trump has mentioned he helps Israel, although he too has urged a fast finish to the battle.

The Home impact

How the candidates fare in Thursday’s debate doesn’t affect simply the Biden and Trump campaigns.

Most voters who determine as Democrats and Republicans have, it’s secure to say, already made up their minds on which of the 2 presidential candidates they’re supporting come November.

However how the political events attain swing voters is essential, notably for tight congressional races in Southern California and across the nation.

There are a number of shut Home races in California, specifically, that may decide which get together has the speaker’s gavel at any time when both Biden or Trump (presumably) is within the White Home subsequent 12 months. Key races embody the twenty seventh congressional district in Los Angeles County, the forty first within the Inland Empire, and the forty fifth and forty seventh in Orange County.

Suppose both candidate makes use of the controversy to take a hardline place on a problem that turns off swing voters. If it occurs, Home candidates must resolve simply how a lot they will align with their get together’s nominee.

Newsom’s within the constructing

Fresh off a pre-recorded and political State of the State address, Gov. Gavin Newsom is headed to Atlanta to function a post-debate surrogate for the Biden marketing campaign.

Newsom has traveled across the nation to marketing campaign for Biden; he was even at a Republican presidential primary debate final 12 months in Simi Valley to tout the president. However his involvement with the controversy (he’ll be within the ‘spin room’ post-debate, speaking about Biden’s accomplishments on stage, a lot as conservative allies of Trump can be providing commentary to spice up their candidate) solely underscores rumors about Newsom’s political ambitions.

“To be honest to Newsom, each supporter of the 2 candidates isn’t essentially working for president in 4 years,” mentioned Schnur. “However most of these different surrogates haven’t been touring across the nation for the final a number of months increasing their nationwide profile both.”


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