Earlier than the historic responsible verdict in former President Donald Trump‘s felony case, susceptible Home Republicans had a decent rope to stroll.
Beginning along with his 2016 presidential marketing campaign, Trump has been a polarizing determine in American politics. Candidates in Southern California’s swing districts these previous election cycles — like Rep. Michelle Metal in California’s forty fifth, where voters solidly picked President Joe Biden over Trump in 2020 while electing to send Steel back to Congress — have needed to weigh aligning themselves with a president who may flip away unbiased voters or dropping out on help from a Republican base that venerates Trump.
And with Trump set to touch down in Southern California later this week to bolster his marketing campaign coffers, that balancing act simply bought a bit tricker. His go to comes on the heels of his conviction on 34 felony counts associated to falsifying enterprise paperwork to affect the 2016 presidential election illegally.
Whereas many Republicans defended Trump following the verdict — echoing Trump’s personal criticism of the choose and allegations that the trial was “rigged” — there’s been silence from a number of of these extra susceptible Home Republican incumbents and candidates in deep blue California. And it’s unclear which, if any, Republican candidates will pursue the prospect to talk and get their image with Trump when he’s in Beverly Hills and Newport Seaside.
Metal and Rep. Younger Kim, whose district spans Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties, didn’t reply to requests for remark in regards to the verdict. Their social media accounts have additionally been void of any supportive posts.
A spokesperson for Rep. Mike Garcia, R-Santa Clarita, additionally didn’t reply to requests for remark. His social media accounts of late, too, didn’t reference the trial.
“It’s a really troublesome line to stroll. Trump and his marketing campaign have made it clear for a while now that their technique is to assault the choose and the judicial system,” mentioned Dan Schnur, who teaches political messaging at USC and UC Berkeley.
“That’s a really savvy approach of motivating his base, however it’s not as clear whether or not that helps with swing voters,” Schnur added. “So Republicans in protected districts can observe Trump’s lead with none hesitation, however these working in aggressive races won’t have that luxurious.”
Nonetheless, just a few Republicans have voiced help for Trump because the verdict, together with Scott Baugh, who’s working within the forty seventh congressional district in Orange County. The open seat is considered to “lean Democrat” by the Prepare dinner Political Report election analyst website.
“The decision ought to shock nobody,” mentioned Baugh. “A politically motivated prosecutor and a hostile choose set the trial up for therefore many prejudicial errors. President Trump may have his alternative to attraction, and I’m assured {that a} honest listening to will expose and resolve these points.”
“Political prosecutions are on the rise,” he mentioned.
And Rep. Ken Calvert — who represents CA-41 in Riverside County, thought of a “Republican toss-up” by the Prepare dinner Political Report — expressed his concern with the decision on social media with out immediately invoking the previous president’s identify.
Individuals who imagine that justice ought to be blind to politics and administered equally ought to be involved with immediately’s final result. It’s alarming that our prison justice system continues to be taken benefit of by partisan prosecutors who wish to use the facility of their workplace to…
— Rep. Ken Calvert (@KenCalvert) May 30, 2024
“Individuals who imagine that justice ought to be blind to politics and administered equally ought to be involved with immediately’s final result,” Calvert mentioned. “It’s alarming that our prison justice system continues to be taken benefit of by partisan prosecutors who wish to use the facility of their workplace to affect our democratic elections.”
Whereas voters do care about “regulation and order” or “the rule of regulation,” Schnur mentioned, it’s solely one in all many points that could be on the prime of their minds this election season.
Even earlier than the trial, Republicans in swing districts homed in on points like immigration and inflation, mentioned Schnur.
And people are the problems which might be extra more likely to resonate with swing voters, mentioned Jon Fleischman, the previous government director of the California Republican Social gathering.
“On the finish of the day, swing voters are going to care about their fuel costs, their grocery costs and fentanyl coming over the border,” mentioned Fleischman. “I believe that is the stuff (Trump’s responsible verdict) that each one the partisan individuals on both facet obsess over, and I don’t suppose swing voters are centered on it.”
Working example: Whereas neither Kim nor Metal has posted about Trump on social media, each have used their respective X accounts, previously Twitter, on Friday to debate the southern border.
Nonetheless, whereas specializing in so-called kitchen desk points could also be “simply as robust a system for Republicans in aggressive races immediately because it was final week,” Schnur mentioned, “it’s going to be a better problem for them to get that message heard now.”
“Already, you’ve seen many Republicans speaking about how there are different subjects which might be going to be extra necessary to the voters than the trial,” he continued. “Meaning they don’t wish to discuss in regards to the trial.”
Following the cash
Whereas Republicans might not wish to discuss Trump’s conviction now, there’s little doubt they see a possible constructive in it: the inflow of money.
Trump’s marketing campaign says it has raised practically $53 million in on-line donations because the verdict. The information launch says greater than one-third of the donors are “new to the marketing campaign” however provided few different particulars.
However for Republicans in aggressive Home races, it’s the Nationwide Republican Congressional Committee’s reported haul of more than $300,000 Thursday that will curiosity them extra. (As Punchbowl News reported, that far exceeds the congressional marketing campaign arm’s earlier one-day file by about $125,000.)
“Even over the course of the trial, there already was a marked improve in Trump’s fundraising,” mentioned Schnur. “That’s more likely to proceed and even intensify.”
Trump is scheduled to head to Southern California later this week for 2 in-person fundraisers — the primary in Beverly Hills on Friday, June 7, and the following in Newport Seaside the next day at an occasion hosted by digital actuality entrepreneur Palmer Luckey, who has put on private fundraisers for the former president in past election cycles as effectively.
However don’t anticipate to see any of these Republican congressional candidates in aggressive Southern California races flocking to the fundraisers.
“That is only for our supporters and donors, and we’ll most likely come again within the fall to assist congressional campaigns,” mentioned Tony Strickland, a Huntington Seaside councilmember and spokesperson for the Trump marketing campaign in Orange County.
The objective is to assist the president, Strickland mentioned, and “attendees are dominated by people who find themselves writing the checks.”
Lance Trover, a spokesperson for Metal, declined to reply questions on whether or not she would attend a fundraiser for the individual main her celebration or if she has any plans to marketing campaign with him forward of November.
Notably, Steel did tell Punchbowl ahead of the verdict that what goes on on the prime of the ticket “doesn’t actually matter.”
Within the basic election, Steel faces Democrat Derek Tran, an lawyer who has spoken about being the son of Vietnamese refugees on the marketing campaign path.
Kim, too, received’t be attending the fundraisers, a spokesperson mentioned, and can as a substitute be at occasions in her district over the weekend.
Kim’s district additionally went for Biden in 2020, when voters elected to ship her again to Washington, D.C., however her race is taken into account to be “probably Republican” by the Prepare dinner Political Report. Metal’s, then again, is labeled “lean Republican,” which means it’s projected to be extra aggressive.
Employees writers Clara Harter and Jeff Horseman contributed to this report.
